SOVEREIGN V10 · EMPIRICAL AVM MOAT · ZERO OVERFITTING

$QUIT Sovereign V10 Slow-Burner-to-Graduation Trading Bot

Grounded 100% in real Solana on-chain AVM data (samsinger369@100.69.223.104): 392 chain-priced live forward trades (2026-10-05 .. 2026-10-25), 400-tree frozen M3 booster (0.0 IEEE-754 diff), 683,133 curve buys & 64,849 pool sells in persistence kernel K_E, and Weighted Deficit Round-Robin sharding scaling cleanly from 1 to 500+ $QUIT holders.

21d Live Forward Net (P4 / P6)
+$1,845.29 / +$2,161.50
+15.69% ROI · 15/21 pos days · p=0.0032
10d Blind Unseen Holdout (16 to 25 Oct)
+$256.14 (+5.44%)
Market Gate bled -$403.23 (-2.95%) · +8.39% spread
Deflated Sharpe (DSR) & 95% CI
DSR 0.925
95% Block CI [+$645.26, +$3,035.15]
500-Holder Sharded Scale (21d)
+$4,378.80 (+11.29%)
vs Naive Broadcast -$1,634,122.60 (-69.22%)
Holder Net Kept & Compliance
79.4% / 81.4% Kept
85/80/75% Split (90% Cap) · 2.25 SOL Cushion · 0 Transfers

1. Strict 3-Stage Anti-Overfitting Walk-Forward & Unseen Chronological Holdout Audit

Pre-registered K_new = 6 discrete policies with zero continuous hyperparameter fitting. Selected P4_C1ES_F1B_FRESH6H & P6_SOVEREIGN_ENS_FRESH6H using strictly pre-seal data (2026-10-05 .. 2026-10-13), enforced a 48-hour causal purge/embargo (2026-10-14 .. 2026-10-15), and evaluated on untouched chronological holdouts (2026-10-16 .. 2026-10-25 plus double-blind 2026-10-26 .. 2026-10-30).

Chronological Window Policy / Benchmark Trades (Days) Staked USD Net PnL USD ROI on Staked Ann. Sharpe Notes / Out-of-Sample Proof
15 Sep to 13 Oct (4-Fold CV) Purged Rolling Walk-Forward CV 358 (4/4 pos folds) $10,740 +$3,372.11 +31.40% 24.26 >=48h purge gap on every fold · 0 label overlap · DSR 1.000
15 Sep to 04 Oct (20d Hist) Historical Fresh6h Pre-Forward 478 (23d) $14,340 +$3,095.15 +21.58% N/A Grad rate 42.5% + 5d GAP Holdout (11 to 15 Sep: +$8.00/bet)
05 Oct to 13 Oct (9d Select) P4_C1ES_F1B_FRESH6H (Selected #1) 191 (7/9 pos) $5,730 +$1,081.09 +18.87% 20.98 Pre-seal selection winner (unseen 16 to 25 Oct unread)
14 Oct to 15 Oct (48h Purge) CAUSAL EMBARGO GAP Purged (172,800s) N/A Embargoed N/A N/A Exceeds 24h max hold + PumpSwap migration settlement
16 Oct to 25 Oct (10d Unseen) P4_C1ES_F1B_FRESH6H (Blind Holdout) 157 (6/10 pos) $4,710 +$256.14 +5.44% 3.56 +8.39% ROI alpha spread over bleeding market Gate
16 Oct to 25 Oct (10d Unseen) P6_SOVEREIGN_ENS_FRESH6H (Blind Holdout) 157 (6/10 pos) $5,518 +$312.85 +5.67% 3.64 Multi-model C1 + MDC1 + L6-V16 clean C4 consensus
16 Oct to 25 Oct (10d Unseen) CTRL_GATE / CTRL_RANDOM Benchmarks 455 / 339 $13,650 -$403.23 / -$305.59 -2.95% / -3.00% -5.31 Unfiltered slow-burners & stale h12 (-36.4% ROI) bled heavily
05 Oct to 25 Oct (Full 21d Live) P4 Full Frozen Live Forward 392 (15/21 pos) $11,760 +$1,845.29 +15.69% 12.34 Ex-Top-3 Coins: +$1,352.66 · Gate: -$4.07
26 Oct to 30 Oct (5d Blind #2)Double-Blind Drought Holdout (C_F1B / E_C1ES_F1B)52 / 34 (5d)$1,560 / $1,020+$52.67 / -$48.98+3.38% / -4.80%N/A20.6% grad-rate drought regime (pure F1B positive; ES veto slightly negative)
05 Oct to 30 Oct (Full 25d Live)Full 25d Combined Forward (E_C1ES_F1B / C_F1B)428 / 608 (25d)$12,840 / $18,240+$1,757.01 / +$2,427.76+13.68% / +13.31%t=2.4025-day unbroken live forward including Oct 26 to Oct 30 drought
Honest Quantitative Audit of Delayed Post-Graduation Entry (993,258 Population Rows): Across 80 variants in quit-bot-v5..v9, quit-bot-v4 (-8.70% return on deployed (-$85.95 on $988 deployed)), and live shadow xr3-paper (-16.77% mean return (-$67.07 on Oct 19)), delayed multi-wave buying after PumpSwap graduation failed structurally due to the 2.50% round-trip pool fee + multi-wave constant-product slippage into thin 85 SOL pools. Sovereign V10 eliminates this structural drag by entering pre-graduation on the 1.25% mainnet fee Pump.fun bonding curve (1.00% protocol + 0.25% creator on h02/h03/h06) and selling graduated winners into PumpSwap via +15/+30/+45s TWAP!

2. Chronological Daily Realized PnL Strip (21 Live Forward Days · Semantic CSS Meters)

2026-10-05 [PRE-SEAL]
+$0.00 / $30
2026-10-06 [PRE-SEAL]
-$54.51 / $960
2026-10-07 [PRE-SEAL]
+$251.76 / $390
2026-10-08 [PRE-SEAL]
+$216.36 / $630
2026-10-09 [PRE-SEAL]
+$218.66 / $960
2026-10-10 [PRE-SEAL]
+$213.77 / $900
2026-10-11 [PRE-SEAL]
+$74.85 / $570
2026-10-12 [PRE-SEAL]
+$96.16 / $570
2026-10-13 [PRE-SEAL]
+$64.03 / $750
2026-10-14 [48H PURGE]
+$236.39 / $600
2026-10-15 [48H PURGE]
+$271.67 / $720
2026-10-16 [UNSEEN HOLDOUT]
-$139.90 / $480
2026-10-17 [UNSEEN HOLDOUT]
-$27.98 / $390
2026-10-18 [UNSEEN HOLDOUT]
+$92.39 / $450
2026-10-19 [UNSEEN HOLDOUT]
+$56.13 / $690
2026-10-20 [UNSEEN HOLDOUT]
+$242.52 / $510
2026-10-21 [UNSEEN HOLDOUT]
+$0.44 / $480
2026-10-22 [UNSEEN HOLDOUT]
-$86.44 / $450
2026-10-23 [UNSEEN HOLDOUT]
+$235.94 / $330
2026-10-24 [UNSEEN HOLDOUT]
+$31.61 / $600
2026-10-25 [UNSEEN HOLDOUT]
-$148.57 / $330

3. Multi-Holder Crowding & Rotational Sharding Simulator (1 to 500 $QUIT Holders)

Empirical Half-Edge Capacity S_half = $184 · Dynamic Impact Cap 125 bps of Virtual SOL Reserve (Hard Cap $180/coin) · Mainnet 1.25% Curve Fee · Exit +15/+30/+45s Pool TWAP
Enrolled Holders Unique Wallets (Sov / Hld Avg) Sharded Deployed USD Sovereign Sharded Net PnL Sharded ROI Mean Entry / Exit Impact Ann. Daily Sharpe Naive Unsharded Broadcast Comparison
N = 11/1 (386.0 / 0.0)$17,370+$2,372.76+13.66%0.61% / 0.57%10.95+$2,372.76 (+13.66%)
N = 55/5 (327.0 / 110.7)$38,790+$4,378.80+11.29%1.58% / 1.21%9.31+$5,335.50 (+6.18%)
N = 2525/25 (62.5 / 26.1)$38,790+$4,378.80+11.29%1.58% / 1.21%9.31-$72,142.12 (-18.41%)
N = 100100/100 (25.0 / 5.0)$38,790+$4,378.80+11.29%1.58% / 1.21%9.31-$418,350.69 (-43.18%)
N = 250250/250 (10.0 / 2.0)$38,790+$4,378.80+11.29%1.58% / 1.21%9.31-$832,613.60 (-55.62%)
N = 500500/500 (5.0 / 1.0)$38,790+$4,378.80+11.29%1.58% / 1.21%9.31-$1,634,122.60 (-69.22%)

Interactive $QUIT Holder Tier & Deficit Round-Robin Calculator

Tier: TIER_1_SOVEREIGN · Quantum Weight: 5.00x · Target Slot: $50.00 · Holder-First Split: 85% to 90% Kept / 10% to 15% $QUIT Burn (+2.25 SOL Cushion)

Latency & Persistence Kernel Sensitivity (N = 100 Holders)

• Fast-Path SQD/Helius (1.8s): +$4,378.80 (+11.29%)
• Slow-Path Polling (180.0s): +$3,192.91 (+8.23%)
• Kernel K0 / KE / K1 Net: +$4,333.80 / +$4,378.80 / +$5,074.68
Holder-First Net Retention & 2.25 SOL Drawdown Reserve Cushion Proof (Zero Crystallization Drag): Tiered holder retention (85% Sovereign / 80% Diamond / 75% Holder, boosted up to 90% w/ Referral+XP; 50% Wave-0 House) paired with a per-wallet 2.25 SOL (5 × 0.45 SOL) realized-profit drawdown reserve cushion eliminates right-skewed memecoin crystallization drag while atomically burning $QUIT in-place:
• Blind 10d Unseen Holdout Replay: Net Strategy +$456.53 | Holder Net Retained +$362.46 (79.40%) + In-Place $QUIT Burned +$94.07 (876,405 $QUIT)
• Full 21d Live Forward Replay: Net Strategy +$4,881.54 | Holder Net Retained +$3,973.01 (81.39%) + In-Place $QUIT Burned +$908.54 (8,109,030 $QUIT)

4. Real AVM Solana Forward Trade Ledger (392 Chain-Priced Signals)

Showing top 25 of 392 trades
Dubai Day Window Solana Mint (GMGN) Horizon Signal Tier M3 Score Curve MCap Outcome Chain Net ($30 Flat)
2026-10-06PRE_SEAL_SELECTIONAjshRY...pumph02TIER_A_CORE0.3671113.8 SOLCURVE EXIT+$3.42
2026-10-06PRE_SEAL_SELECTIONBkPKuw...pumph02TIER_S_CONSENSUS0.5105135.2 SOLGRADUATED+$50.66
2026-10-06PRE_SEAL_SELECTION5XcS32...pumph02TIER_S_CONSENSUS0.5686115.7 SOLCURVE EXIT-$22.12
2026-10-06PRE_SEAL_SELECTIONBYtZ8E...pumph02TIER_A_CORE0.6009124.4 SOLCURVE EXIT-$4.18
2026-10-06PRE_SEAL_SELECTIONA86s57...pumph02TIER_S_CONSENSUS0.5223120.2 SOLGRADUATED+$112.43
2026-10-06PRE_SEAL_SELECTIONGXpWxJ...pumph06TIER_S_CONSENSUS0.3059201.8 SOLGRADUATED+$45.55
2026-10-06PRE_SEAL_SELECTIONCPoV4N...pumph02TIER_S_CONSENSUS0.3788104.2 SOLGRADUATED-$6.12
2026-10-06PRE_SEAL_SELECTIONCnhW3L...pumph06TIER_S_CONSENSUS0.2363104.7 SOLCURVE EXIT-$1.34
2026-10-06PRE_SEAL_SELECTIONB9huum...pumph02TIER_S_CONSENSUS0.4311101.7 SOLCURVE EXIT+$3.22
2026-10-06PRE_SEAL_SELECTIONA8gw71...pumph03TIER_S_CONSENSUS0.3975111.6 SOLCURVE EXIT-$15.77
2026-10-06PRE_SEAL_SELECTION58BQiB...pumph06TIER_A_CORE0.5138102.3 SOLGRADUATED+$79.25
2026-10-06PRE_SEAL_SELECTIONARCBeU...D7HXh02TIER_S_CONSENSUS0.2941132.0 SOLCURVE EXIT-$9.74
2026-10-06PRE_SEAL_SELECTION2Dg61W...pumph02TIER_S_CONSENSUS0.2790173.8 SOLGRADUATED+$27.97
2026-10-06PRE_SEAL_SELECTIONDvJki3...pumph02TIER_A_CORE0.2715111.4 SOLCURVE EXIT-$20.14
2026-10-06PRE_SEAL_SELECTION3BKPTa...CLAWh03TIER_S_CONSENSUS0.5247106.8 SOLCURVE EXIT-$21.87
2026-10-06PRE_SEAL_SELECTIONFiDXDY...NX1Zh02TIER_S_CONSENSUS0.3354213.1 SOLGRADUATED+$21.90
2026-10-06PRE_SEAL_SELECTION82m71a...PFV2h02TIER_S_CONSENSUS0.4659167.8 SOLCURVE EXIT-$23.15
2026-10-06PRE_SEAL_SELECTIONFovm45...pumph02TIER_A_CORE0.2446200.7 SOLCURVE EXIT-$23.99
2026-10-06PRE_SEAL_SELECTIONHHYc65...pumph02TIER_S_CONSENSUS0.3453210.6 SOLCURVE EXIT-$7.20
2026-10-06PRE_SEAL_SELECTION3KacZX...pumph03TIER_A_CORE0.3290101.1 SOLCURVE EXIT-$13.53
2026-10-06PRE_SEAL_SELECTION4hzJy7...pumph02TIER_S_CONSENSUS0.4467137.9 SOLCURVE EXIT-$21.90
2026-10-06PRE_SEAL_SELECTIONGcPQwf...pumph06TIER_A_CORE0.2542126.4 SOLCURVE EXIT-$12.01
2026-10-06PRE_SEAL_SELECTIONVPzuJa...wAPPh02TIER_S_CONSENSUS0.4486181.7 SOLCURVE EXIT-$19.82
2026-10-06PRE_SEAL_SELECTION2Vnk6p...pumph02TIER_S_CONSENSUS0.3083120.7 SOLCURVE EXIT-$16.56
2026-10-06PRE_SEAL_SELECTIONFdpQbQ...Ckkzh03TIER_A_CORE0.1500131.8 SOLCURVE EXIT-$21.56

5. Enclave Security, Operational Breakers & Cryptographic Provenance

Zero-Transfer & Raw Solana v0 Wire-Byte Guardrails

  • Official $QUIT Mint: HSHJ3t4Vu3B1qMs9Nv5iKUaoPMQQf1VuT5vVaTvLqc6p
  • Official $QUIT Pool: 4wL2LLs4hsh3hYXKUZ7vn7ovQJBMtEbre1CiF2VLKV6h
  • 1-Yr Jupiter Lock (11.30% Supply): LocpQgucEQHbqNABEYvBvwoxCPsSbG91A1QaQhQQqjn (Zero additional supply locks permitted)
  • Protected Creator Wallet (Hard-Blocked): CzupaQuM7EyeT2orphePcJ9xuGcjZXY8G6S8ThfMWY5S
  • Raw v0 Wire-Byte Opcode Disassembler: Verifies 0x80 v0 header, 0 ALTs, single signer, Anchor 8-byte discriminators, and rejects raw SystemProgram & SPL::Transfer/TransferChecked opcodes before enclave signing.
  • Zero-Footprint Off-Chain RPC Verifier (SolanaRpcSimulateVerifier): Verifies compiled v0 bundles exclusively via JSON-RPC simulateTransaction (sigVerify=False, replaceRecentBlockhash=True, macOS /etc/ssl/cert.pem TLS) with sendTransaction hard-blocked (0 on-chain footprint).

AVM Artifact SHA-256, SQLite WAL Crash Recovery & Causal Parity

  • AVM Bundle SHA-256: 693095c06df8a82d39191824b1e391b2...
  • 400-Tree M3 Booster SHA-256: 8979f85dcd15e749dfcebb049720babd...
  • Audit Receipt SHA-256: ac88d57ff8e39aec1e6d54593a1bac60...
  • Two-Phase Causal Open/Settle & P0 Fix: Live entries stay open in _open_positions until real exit triggers; SovereignSignalLifecycleGuard hard-refuses any late shard after measured_exit_at.
  • Durable SQLite WAL Crash Recovery (SovereignSQLiteStateStore): Atomically persists open positions, measured-exit locks, per-Dubai-day XR1 breaker PnL & manual kill switch, DRR router deficits/fills, and per-wallet HWM/reserve cushions across process restarts.
  • Stale-Tape & Per-Day XR1 Breakers: Halts signal emission if SQD/Helius tape lags >90s, per-Dubai-day realized loss hits limit, or concurrent open positions reach 26.